2026 Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Guide

Quarterback is a wait-and-see position in 2026 — except at the very top. Josh Allen sits alone in his own tier, and the drop-off after him is real. The good news: the mid-rounds are loaded with upside plays, and several of them are going later than they should (ECR vs. ADP, or expert consensus ranking vs. average draft position, measures how a player's expert ranking compares to where he's actually being drafted — a positive number means experts rank him higher than his draft cost).

Elite — the only one

Josh Allen

Allen is the clear QB1, and it isn't close. FantasyPros 2026 projects him for 370.5 PPR points (in PPR scoring, a point is awarded per reception — here used as the standard fantasy scoring baseline for QBs), the highest mark in this pool by 46 points. He totaled 374.6 PPR points in 2025 across 17 games, so the projection is essentially asking him to replicate last year. His rushing ceiling is the separator: the projection has him at 118 rushing attempts and 11.5 rushing touchdowns, which is the kind of dual-threat upside no other QB in this class matches. Bust risk sits at 2/5 and his ECR is actually five spots below his ADP — meaning he's being drafted ahead of where analysts rank him — so don't overpay on draft day. A round 1 pick at the right slot is fine; reach two rounds for him and you're costing yourself a skill-position starter.

High-end QB2s — buy the gap

Five quarterbacks project between 320 and 325 points. They're close enough in the numbers that roster construction and value matter more than exact ordering.

Lamar Jackson

Jackson projects for 324.8 PPR points — but his 2025 actual production (221.9 points in only 13 games) is a loud warning label. The projection assumes a full 16-17 game season; if his availability is a concern again, that's a real bust risk. FantasyPros rates him 4/5 on bust risk, the highest in this tier. The ECR-vs.-ADP number is +6, meaning he's going a bit later than analysts prefer, so the price is fair — just know you're paying for upside that requires him to stay healthy for a full year. His rushing floor (projected 640 yards, 3.2 rushing TDs) keeps the floor meaningful, but 13 games last year makes this a calculated gamble.

Jayden Daniels

Daniels projects for 322.2 PPR points in just his second NFL season, and the projection is aggressive given he played only 7 games in 2025 for 117.3 fantasy points. That's a massive tension to flag: the projection assumes something close to a full season from a QB who missed more than half of last year. His rushing volume is enormous on paper — 130 rush attempts and 685 rushing yards projected — but that's built on the assumption he's healthy and fully featured in Washington's offense. ECR vs. ADP is +9, so analysts like him relative to his cost. The upside is real, the injury history is too short to read clearly, but the value is there if you roster him knowing the risk.

Drake Maye

Maye is the most interesting name in this range. He put up 360.0 PPR points across all 17 games in 2025 — actual production that nearly matches his 320.7-point projection for 2026. That's a rare case where last year's real numbers exceed the forward projection, which usually signals the projection is conservative. His ECR vs. ADP is a whopping +15, meaning he's going 15 spots later than analysts rank him. That's value. He's only in his second NFL season (still a young QB), his bust risk is 2/5, and his strength of schedule is rated 2/5 — a favorable slate. Lock him in as a late-round starter in single-QB leagues if he's there.

Jalen Hurts

Hurts projects for 320.2 PPR points, backed by a full 17-game 2025 season of 305.1 points — a reasonable baseline, though the projection expects a step up. His rushing touchdown projection (8.4) is the engine here; without that, he's a volume passer in a middling range. The one flag: strength of schedule is rated 5/5 stars (hardest in this tier), so the path to that projection isn't smooth. ECR vs. ADP is +6, meaning modest value. Fine pick, not a steal.

Solid starters — the meaty middle

Joe Burrow

Burrow's projection (310.8 PPR points) comes with a massive asterisk: he scored just 139.5 actual PPR points in 2025. His projection imagines 33.3 passing touchdowns and 4,175 passing yards — a full-season workload that his 2025 availability simply didn't support. A recent PFF data point noted his big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio was historically elite across eight games last season, so the talent is real when he's on the field. But "when he's on the field" is doing a lot of work. If you're drafting him, you're betting on health. His ECR vs. ADP is +8 — analysts believe in him more than his draft cost reflects — but factor in that bust risk honestly before pulling the trigger.

Jaxson Dart

Dart is a first-year starting QB coming off a 15-game 2025 season where he posted 246.6 PPR points. His 309.6-point projection implies meaningful growth in year 2. A notable piece of news: the Giants recently signed Jameis Winston to a two-year extension, which suggests the organization has a clear veteran backup in place — not a change to Dart's starting role, but worth monitoring. His upside rating is 5/5 and bust risk is 4/5, which is the profile of a high-variance dart. ECR vs. ADP is only +2, so the market has largely priced him in. Fine pick in the mid-rounds.

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence projects for 306.6 PPR points, and here the tension between signals is significant: he actually produced 350.2 PPR points across all 17 games in 2025, making his 2026 projection look conservative. That's the same pattern as Maye — real production exceeding the forward projection. His ECR vs. ADP is +13, adding to the value case. Upside is rated 5/5 with a bust risk of only 2/5. If Lawrence is available a round or two after you'd expect, take him.

Brock Purdy

Purdy projects for 306.0 PPR points, but he played only 9 games in 2025 for 187.4 points. Like Burrow and Daniels, his projection assumes availability that recent history doesn't guarantee. When healthy, the projection trusts him — 4,154 passing yards, 27.3 TDs — and his bust risk is a remarkably low 1/5. His schedule is rated 1/5 stars (most favorable in this entire pool). ECR vs. ADP is +18, so analysts love him at his cost. The risk is health, not talent or situation.

Dak Prescott

Prescott projects at 305.9 PPR points, and his 2025 actual (323.8 points in 17 games) actually exceeds the projection — another conservative forward number. His ECR vs. ADP has no stated positive gap in the data (no +/- listed), suggesting he's going roughly where analysts expect. He has a favorable schedule (2/5 stars) and a 2/5 bust risk. Solid, consistent floor; just don't expect a ceiling game every week with minimal rushing contribution projected (1.7 rushing TDs).

Value tier — the upside plays

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes projects for 302.5 PPR points, down from 296.7 actual PPR points in a full 2025 season — broadly consistent projections. The biggest flag heading into 2026 is his Questionable injury designation. That's the only player in this entire pool carrying an active injury tag, and with the season starting September 8, that's real information. His bust risk is 4/5 and upside is only 3/5 — the projection source itself is hedging on him. ECR vs. ADP is +5. Don't reach; there are cleaner plays in this range.

Caleb Williams

Williams projects at 301.5 PPR points, and his 2025 actual (325.2 PPR points in 17 games) again beats the projection. That pattern — real production exceeding the forward number — is a recurring theme for the Bears QB. His ECR vs. ADP is +15, meaning significant analyst value relative to draft cost, and his bust risk is just 2/5 with upside at 5/5. Only in his second NFL season. If the 2025 production is the baseline and the projection is conservative, Williams could be a league-winner at his draft price.

Justin Herbert

Herbert projects at 299.5 PPR points, and his 2025 actual (299.9 points in 16 games) essentially matches the projection — a rare clean alignment between the two signals. PFF's Week 1 rankings flagged him as a top-five QB with a favorable early matchup. His ECR vs. ADP is +14, so analysts see value. Bust risk is 2/5, upside is 5/5. The projection may be conservative given the favorable schedule (2/5 stars). A reliable mid-round target.

Bo Nix

Nix projects at 298.0 PPR points and delivered 315.8 actual PPR points in 17 games in 2025 — another case where last year outperformed the forward projection. His ECR vs. ADP is a massive +20, suggesting the market is sleeping on him. Only in his second NFL season. The bust risk is 2/5. Similar profile to Maye and Williams: young, productive, underpriced.

Matthew Stafford

Stafford is the one clear fade signal in this pool. His projection (293.9 PPR points) is significantly lower than his 2025 actual (358.4 PPR points in 17 games) — a rare case where the projection steps down sharply from real production. His ECR vs. ADP is -12, meaning he's being drafted 12 spots ahead of where analysts rank him, making him a potential overvalue. That -12 is the most negative number in this entire pool. Stafford is 17 years into his career; PFF's premium data noted he holds an all-time "full-season" big-time throw record, so the talent isn't the issue. The projection is just skeptical of him repeating, and the market hasn't caught up. Draft accordingly.

Streamers and late-round fliers

Kyler Murray

Murray is now with Minnesota and projects for 291.4 PPR points. His 2025 actual (80.8 points in 14 games) is a massive gap from the projection — the largest discrepancy in this entire pool between what was produced and what's projected. His ECR vs. ADP is +24, and analysts seem to be projecting a fresh-start bounce rather than trusting the recent track record. A 4/5 bust risk and a brutal 5/5 schedule difficulty makes this a high-wire act. Only draft him if you're in a 2-QB league or streaming.

Jared Goff

Goff projects at 288.0 PPR points after putting up 305.1 actual points in a full 17-game 2025 season — another case of a conservative projection relative to recent production. His bust risk is 1/5, the lowest in the pool. But his schedule is rated 5/5 stars (toughest), and his ECR vs. ADP of +21 suggests the market has him too cheap. His rushing contribution is minimal (projected 48 rushing yards, 0.2 rushing TDs), so he lives and dies by the passing game. Solid late-round option in 2-QB or superflex formats.

Also in the mix

Tyler Shough (NO) projects for 285.1 PPR points in his first full year as a starter — his 2025 actual of 164.0 points in 17 games is the number to watch, and the gap to the projection is wide. Baker Mayfield (TB) projects at 281.8 points, close to his 282.9 actual in 2025 — consistent, if unexciting, with a high 4/5 bust risk. Jordan Love (GB) projects at 272.2 points; a waiver wire report noted Josh Jacobs' Commissioner's Exempt List status could push more passing volume Love's way in 2026. Daniel Jones (IND) projects at 274.0 points — a 7-year veteran who produced 234.4 PPR points in 2025 — and carries a +37 ECR vs. ADP, but also a 4/5 bust risk with a tough schedule. Malik Willis (MIA) projects at 271.8 points with enormous rushing volume baked in (projected 642 rushing yards, 124 rush attempts), but his 2025 actual of 51.2 points in 16 games demands an extreme skepticism discount. Sam Darnold (SEA) and C.J. Stroud (HOU) round out the pool at 266.1 and 260.6 projected PPR points respectively; both are late-round names to add as handcuffs or streaming options.

Bottom line: who to target, who to avoid

Take Allen if the price is right — but don't panic-reach. After him, target Maye, Lawrence, and Nix: all three produced more in 2025 than their forward projections, they're going later than analysts rank them, and their bust risks are low. Williams and Herbert are clean mid-round plays with similar profiles. Avoid Stafford at current ADP — the -12 ECR gap is the loudest avoid signal in this pool and the projection itself shows a sharp step down from 2025. Hold off on Mahomes until his injury designation clears. And treat Kyler Murray as a last-round dart at best — the 2025 production (80.8 PPR points) and the +24 ECR gap tell completely different stories, and the schedule is brutal.