2026 Week 1-4 Fantasy Football Season Trends Lookback: Risers and Fallers

Four weeks into the 2026 season, the early-season noise is starting to look like signal. Some players are lapping their preseason projections; others are buried so far below pace that a full recovery looks unlikely. This checkpoint exists for one reason: to figure out which gaps are real role changes and which ones will close on their own.

Risers

Kirk Cousins

Cousins leads every player in this dataset in positive delta — 82.8 actual PPR points against a prorated expectation of just 14.8, a +68.0 gap. His preseason projection was a modest 62.7 for the full season, so he has already banked more than his entire projected output through four games. He's playing 100% of snaps and averaging 4 rushing touches per game, which chips in bonus fantasy value beyond passing production. The news cycle has flagged him as a waiver-wire option worth "real trust" after four games. Sustainability question: Will Las Vegas give Fernando Mendoza a chance at some point this season if the Raiders fall out of contention? Lock him in as a legitimate starter for now, not just a hot-streak play, but be prepared to pivot.

Kenneth Walker

Walker has 110.1 PPR points through four games against a prorated expectation of 55.2 — a +54.9 delta, the largest among running backs here. He's averaging 24.8 touches and 4.8 targets per game with a 74.7% snap share (snap share = percentage of offensive plays a player is on the field for). That workload is a real role, not a hot streak. A recent news item noted he and Kyren Williams were the first players since 2016 to each score two late-game touchdown runs in the same week, underscoring the volume and game-script trust he's earning. With that usage baked in, expect him to stay well above his preseason pace.

Chris Olave

Olave's 90.1 points through four games sits +40.0 above his prorated pace of 50.1. More importantly, his usage supports the number: 12 average targets per game and an 84.4% snap share make this look like a genuine target-share (percentage of a team's pass attempts directed at one player) elevation, not a fluke. His preseason projection of 213 for the full season implied a strong role, but he's outrunning even that expectation. Expect this to hold — the usage is real.

Kyren Williams

Williams has 89.7 points on a prorated pace of 49.6, a +40.1 delta. He's averaging 18.8 touches and 6.3 targets per game — the targets in particular are a big deal, since that pass-catching role pushes his PPR (points per reception, a scoring format that awards one point per catch) ceiling higher than a pure rusher. He and Walker made the same late-game heroics news item for their Week 4 fourth-quarter runs. His 68.2% snap share is the one note of caution — not a full-bell-cow workload — but the production and usage are both pointing the same direction. Strong hold.

Christian Watson

Watson has 77.1 points against a prorated pace of 39.4, a +37.7 delta. He's averaging 8 targets and a 78.7% snap share. The preseason projection of 167.5 already implied a featured role; he's simply outperforming it. Target volume at this level is sustainable — fade concerns are minimal barring injury.

Jalen Coker

Coker has 52.2 points in only three games played against a prorated pace of 20.6 — a +31.6 delta. He's averaging 7.3 targets and a 65.3% snap share in those three games, which is a legitimate role. The catch: he's listed as Out right now. The usage while healthy was real, and he's worth holding for when he returns, but he gets no fantasy value while inactive. Three-game sample also deserves some caution — don't overreact either way, but the role looked genuine.

Deshaun Watson

Watson has 68.9 points against a prorated expectation of 37.2, a +31.7 delta. He's averaging 7.8 rushing touches per game at a 99.7% snap share — full starter volume. A news item noted the Browns opened the practice window for backup Dillon Gabriel, which is worth monitoring; if Gabriel returns, Watson's job security becomes a real question. For now the production is real, but keep one eye on that depth chart.

George Kittle

Kittle has 64.4 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 36.8, a +27.6 delta. He's averaging 5.5 targets and a 67.6% snap share — solid but not dominant usage. One news snippet described this as "possibly the greatest return from a torn ACL," which implies recent injury history. The usage is healthy enough to support continued production, though his 67.6% snap share suggests he's not yet at full workload. Expect performance closer to his preseason pace (which projected 156.2 for the season) as the season progresses, but he's clearly back and functional.

Michael Mayer

Mayer has 42.9 points against a prorated pace of 15.7, a +27.2 delta. He's averaging 6 targets, 5 receptions, and an 85.1% snap share — that's a featured role, and a news item noted he "almost outscored teammate Brock Bowers" in Week 4, which is a remarkable sentence. With usage this strong, Mayer looks like more than a hot-streak beneficiary. He's a legitimate streaming option and possibly a hold in deeper leagues.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown has 91.3 points against a prorated pace of 64.0, a +27.3 delta. He's averaging 11.5 targets and an 88.7% snap share — elite usage numbers. His preseason projection of 272.2 already had him as a top-tier receiver; he's outperforming even that. Nothing here looks fluky. This is a sustained role, and if anything, the volume suggests his points total will keep climbing toward the high end of his projection range.

Darius Cooper

Cooper's +27.3 delta is notable mostly because his preseason projection was 6.8 points for the full season — he was essentially unprojected. He has 28.9 actual points through four games, averaging 5 targets per game, but his 38.9% snap share is a real limitation. That's a part-time role. Enjoy the production while it lasts, but don't expect it to hold at this pace — a 38.9% snap share rarely sustains WR2 fantasy output.

Josh Allen

Allen has 115.5 points through four games against a prorated pace of 86.4, a +29.1 delta. He's the QB1 in this dataset by raw points and playing 100% of snaps with 8.5 rushing touches per game. His preseason projection of 367.1 already made him the consensus top fantasy quarterback; he's simply running ahead of that already-lofty pace. No sustainability concerns — this is Allen doing Allen things.

Brock Bowers

Bowers has 48.2 points in just two games against a prorated pace of 22.6 — a +25.6 delta. Two-game samples demand real caution; don't read this as an established trend. That said, his usage in those two games is striking: 12.5 average targets and an 80.4% snap share. If those numbers hold, he'll be a top-tier fantasy tight end all season. But two games is two games — verify the role holds before going all-in.

Fallers

Kyler Murray

Murray has 23.5 points in three games against a prorated expectation of 52.7 — a -29.2 delta, the largest among fallers. His 72.3% snap share is the red flag: a starting quarterback playing fewer than three-quarters of snaps is either managing an injury or dealing with game-script issues that are actively hurting his fantasy value. His preseason projection of 298.9 assumed a full workload. Until the snap share returns to a normal starting-QB range, regression toward that expectation looks unlikely. Three games is a small sample, but the usage decline is a real warning sign, not a bad-luck streak.

Daniel Jones

Jones has 40.3 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 64.1, a -23.8 delta. He's averaging only 2.8 rushing touches per game — low even for a pocket-passer archetype — and his 100% snap share at least confirms the job is his. His preseason projection of 272.6 implied solid QB2 value; he's tracking well below that. With no usage trend pointing upward, expect continued underperformance relative to preseason expectations rather than a snap-back to his projected pace.

Kyle Pitts

Pitts has 11.7 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 33.7, a -22.0 delta. His 53.4% snap share and 2.3 average targets are the real problem — this is a part-time role, not an unlucky stretch. A news item placed him in a waiver-wire article, which tells you where his value has landed. His preseason projection of 143.4 required a featured role; the usage data says that role doesn't exist right now. Regression to the mean isn't coming if the snap share doesn't recover first.

Calvin Ridley

Ridley has 7.8 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 28.4, a -20.6 delta. His 51.6% snap share and 1.7 average targets describe a deep-depth-chart receiver, not a preseason projection subject. With usage this low, there's no path back to his projected 120.7 unless something changes on the depth chart. A trade-deadline article flagged him as a potential move candidate, which adds more uncertainty. Sell if anyone will take him.

Malik Willis

Willis has 43.7 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 63.7, a -20.0 delta. He's playing 100% of snaps and averaging 4.8 rushing touches, so it's not a role problem — he just isn't generating the fantasy numbers his preseason projection (270.7 for the season) required. A news snippet described him as struggling with third-down conversions. With full usage but underperforming numbers, some regression toward his projection is plausible, but the current pace makes that full 270-point season look very ambitious.

Marvin Harrison

Harrison has 19.5 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 37.2, a -17.7 delta. His 73.7% snap share is fine, but 3.3 average targets is not — that's the number of a second or third option, not a receiver with a 158.2 preseason projection. A trade-deadline article described him as someone who "has gotten worse every season" and floated him as a potential move candidate. With low targets and declining trajectory, don't count on a rebound to preseason expectations. The usage just isn't there.

Troy Franklin

Franklin has 7.3 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 18.6, a -11.3 delta. His 30.4% snap share and 1.3 average targets confirm a fringe role. His preseason projection of 79.0 required something that hasn't shown up. Similar story to Westbrook-Ikhine and Jefferson — low-snap receivers with no clear path to volume recovery are the hardest fallers to bet on. Fade.

Makai Lemon

Lemon has 16.0 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 29.7, a -13.7 delta. He averages 3.8 targets and a 67.7% snap share — the snap share isn't alarming, but the target volume is soft for a player projected at 126.3 for the season. Unlike the near-zero snap-share fallers, there's an actual role here; he's just not getting the targets to match expectations. Some upside remains if the target share improves, but at current volume he's a borderline flex at best.

Jalen Nailor

Nailor has 10.2 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 23.1, a -12.9 delta. His 50.1% snap share and 3.7 average targets leave him well short of what his preseason projection (98.2) required. He's also currently listed as questionable. A news item from Week 4 noted he was ruled out mid-game. With injury uncertainty and a part-time role, he's a hold-and-see in deep leagues only.

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield has 37.1 points in three games against a prorated expectation of 50.4, a -13.3 delta — and he's currently listed as Out. His preseason projection of 285.5 assumed a full healthy season as a starter; missing time obviously makes that target unreachable. Three games is a small sample to judge his underlying performance, but the combination of below-pace production and current absence makes him a bench/IR stash rather than a start. Monitor the injury timeline closely.

Chimere Dike

Dike has 1.5 points through four games against a prorated expectation of 15.1, a -13.6 delta. His 8.6% snap share and 1.0 average target describe a practice-squad-level role. Nothing in the data suggests a path to relevance. Drop.